Rising Temperatures – Rising Tensions

Primarily thanks to the continuous efforts of environmentalists climate change has now become an established item on the global agenda. On a lower level “Being green” and showing care for the environment is in many countries regarded as a luxury in the light of everyday challenges but I think this is changing for good. Climate change has serious – and devastating – security implications. A scenario where migration is forced by and wars are fought over climate and resources has today a high probability of becoming reality.

Imagine what a people or a country will do if suddenly faced with no access to drinking water – or food – or land….

The Middle East – including Jordan – is often considered as one of the regions mostly affected by the impacts of climate change. The Middle East is also frequently presented as one of the regions that is most likely to erupt into conflict as a result of Climate change. In Jordan climate change is also very present in daily life. We name it draught or water scarcity and we see the Dead Sea shrinking every year. Rainfall has dropped and water consumption gone up and while a part of it is due to local phenomena this development will be accentuated by climate change to an intolerable degree.

For the countries of the Levant the disruptive impact of climate change will be determined by their vulnerability and their ability to adapt to its impact. Climate change might actually offer an incentive for countries in the region to work together despite their political differences. On the other hand given the current political landscape, to some extent characterized by general distrust among most if not all neighbours, hostility and current lack of cooperation, climate change could more likely aggravate tensions in a number of sombre ways.

Climate change is a fact of life and there is increasing global consensus that human activity carries a major responsibility for this. Climate change is furthermore one of the most serious threats facing the world – reducing the availability of water, threatening the production of food, undermining economic growth and threatening the very existence of some parts of the world. We therefore have to act fast through a firm global response.

Denmark will host the United Nations global meeting on climate change – the so called COP15 – in Copenhagen in December. Our objective is to conclude a new, ambitious global agreement on climate change that includes all countries of the world – including Jordan. The agreement should contain ambitious targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions considered the most important driver of climate change.

Against this background the Danish Embassy together with the International Institute for Sustainable Development will launch a report “Rising Temperatures – Rising Tensions” on how climate change can have a positive as well as a negative impact on present and future security challenges in the Middle East. It is our hope that the report can contribute to the broader efforts of promoting peace and security in Middle East.

The Launch will take place today at 17.00 at The Columbia University Middle East Research Center (CUMERC) and will be followed by a presentation of the report by one of its authors Mr. Oli Brown (IISD) and a panel discussion on the report’s findings. Places will be allocated on a first come – first serve basis, and please give a call to the embassy (592 66 20) if you plan to attend. A summary of the report can be downloaded here Rising temp rising tensions – summary.

UPDATE: The full (worth the read) report (4.4 MB) can be downloaded from this link. And a frontpage article from Jordan Times.