Way to Copenhagen

Denmark being the host for the Climate change summit in Copenhagen in December I have been asked to give a brief overview of progress and expectations for a new climate agreement. 

But before doing that I would like to stress one thing that has become more and more evident to me here in Jordan as we are progressing towards that summit.

It can be stated very simply: Man made climate change is a FACT. The science is conclusive.

Unfortunately, in this part of the world among many citizens and some political circles, climate change is either considered as not an urgent problem or considered as a western invented conspiracy to slow down the developing world.

Regrettably, it is much worse. Climate change is the challenge of the century.

It is perfectly understandable that in this region that faces so many diverse problems, another difficult issue to deal with is very unwelcome. None the less, climate change is also a security issue. When climate change puts regional food security and regional water supply at risk we will have a very serious security issue at hand. And when this happens – it is probably too late to do something about it.

Two reports: The first “Rising Temperatures – Rising Tensions” from this spring and a second report from Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) to be released in two weeks in Beirut will make this point very clear. Climate change is important – and in particular to this part of the world.

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So how are we progressing towards a deal in Copenhagen? Two days ago the final UN-negotiation round before Copenhagen concluded in Barcelona. The prospect for a deal in Copenhagen is still there. But the negotiations have progressed much slower than what we had hoped for.

A lot of questions – some political, some technical – are left for Copenhagen.

It now seems almost impossible to be able to conclude a legally binding treaty – with all its nitty-gritty – in Copenhagen. What seems to be possible is a political agreement about the substance in a new climate deal. This agreement will according to a specific deadline be transferred into a legal, global text soon after the COP15 summit.

What now is needed is active global involvement from the highest political level in order to get decisions on the political substance of a new climate deal. Even in the absence of formal UN-negotiations the next four weeks will not run idle.

The major economies will meet; some bilateral summits – not least a crucial one between USA and China – will take place. And there will be various meetings in other formats with the sole purpose of paving the way for a deal in Copenhagen.

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Let me now turn to the issue on how we from the Danish side as host look at what is at stake in Copenhagen in December.

At COP15 in Copenhagen we have a choice to make. The moment will be in our hands. We can either seize it – or we can let it go.

Whatever we choose – there is no doubt that future generations will judge us on our ability to make COP15 a decisive moment of change.

We have a responsibility to the future generations as well as towards ourselves. A responsibility to seal the deal in Copenhagen. And deliver a viable solution to one of the greatest challenges of our time.

In Copenhagen we must provide a fundamental response to climate change.

We should initiate a strong global cooperation to transform the world economy. And promote low carbon economic growth and sustainable development.

Our success depends on our ability to reach an agreement that is consistent with science.

In practical terms this means an agreement that limits the rise in global temperature to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius.

Furthermore – the deal must be based on the principle of equity. It must support, not delay the fight against poverty. It shall be practicable and promote the vision of sustainable development. And it shall send a clear signal to industry to engage in the transition to a low carbon economy.

We have already come a long way. By now many countries have developed far reaching national emission reduction policies and low carbon development plans. And many others are on their way.

This is indeed encouraging. We are all taking action. We are all realizing that the green agenda is both vital to combat global warming and at the same time part of the response to the global economic crisis.

However – as we act, the challenge is also mounting. If we pool all our plans – if we sum up all the national emission reductions under way – the figures do not add up.

We have to acknowledge this harsh fact. And we have to face the only natural consequence: That we have to do more.

Jointly, we can achieve more than the sum of our individual contributions. That is why we need a global agreement.

Allow me to share with you the Danish vision for a global agreement in Copenhagen.

It should be ambitious. It should be binding. It should correspond to the 2 degrees scenario. And it should constitute the overall political framework for future global efforts against climate change – based on the following 5 key elements:

1) First – Industrialized countries will have to commit to substantial reduction targets in the perspective of 80 pct reduction by 2050. At the same time they must offer binding reduction commitments in the near and medium term.

2) Second – Developing countries should commit to reduce growth in CO2 emissions through unilateral and international supported activities. And we should invite developing countries to estimate indicative figures for their projected future emission patterns.

3) The third element is public financing. Developed countries should commit to finance overseas mitigation and adaptation efforts. And we should also accelerate international research in green technology – and facilitate its dissemination all over the world.

4) The fourth element will be market off-sets with an indication of emission reductions purchased abroad through the carbon market.

5) And finally as the fifth element – we must ensure credibility and verification as part of the agreement. Transparency and mutual trust are key words in this regard.

It could be obtained by a system where both developed and developing countries collect and register information to document their individual efforts. That would be an important confidence builder. And it would establish an important direct link between funding and actions.

Concluding a political agreement of this magnitude requires full engagement at the highest political level.

The political will is there. But the agreement is not.

Success will depend critically on the continued engagement of Heads of States and Governments.

As we approach a global agreement, Denmark intents to invite all Heads of States and Governments to come to Copenhagen and close COP15 at the summit level.

Transforming our individual political commitments into a global agreement will take collective political determination at an unprecedented scale.

It is necessary. It is doable. And it is in our hands.

December is the time. Copenhagen is the venue.

And No – there is no Plan B – because there is no Planet B for us to live on.

 Speech on the occasion of the “Way to Copenhagen” conference at the Columbia University Middle East Research Centre the 8th of November 2009.

40 Days and Counting

We have now only 40 days until the negotiations start in Copenhagen. It is not much, but if all make an effort we will be able to seal the climate deal in Copenhagen. Climate change is a fact. We cannot ignore that human activity and the burning of fossil fuels carries a major responsibility for this. We have to act through a firm global response.

Denmark is preparing itself to be the host of one of the biggest international government conferences in our country’s history. We expect about 15000 participants in the conference.

Our objective is to conclude a new, ambitious global agreement on climate change that includes all countries of the world and which includes ambitious targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Global emissions need to be reduced by up to 50 % by the middle of this century – compared to 1990 CO2 emission levels – if dangerous consequences of climate change should be avoided.

The Copenhagen climate change agreement should deal with 4 elements:

• First, how much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gasses?
• Second, how much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to limit their growth of their emissions?
• Third, how is the help needed by developing countries in reducing and adapting to climate change going to be financed?
• Fourth, how is the money spend going to be accounted for and verified?

This is the challenge we are facing at Copenhagen. I know that Jordan is broadly on the same line as we are – so we are looking forward to hosting this very important meeting. I have noticed that also Jordanian press have intensified its coverage of Climate Change during recent months, and I guess the next 40 days until we open the negotiations in Copenhagen will see an even more intensified coverage of this topic. The conference on the 8^th of November at the Columbia University in Amman will be an occasion for the press to focus on the climate change issue.

Jordan Times article

Al Ghad article

Can the Mideast manage climate change?

By Rami G. Khouri

Daily Star staff

Saturday, September 19, 2009

The amount and quality of available scientific data on the global impact of climate change, I rediscovered at a seminar organized by the Danish Foreign Ministry in Copenhagen this week, is staggering. The debate that swirled around the issues of climate change and global warming just two or three years ago has vanished. There is much more certainty now on the nature and extent of the changes to the Earth’s climate that can be attributed to the impact of human activity, mainly the burning of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases.

The collective technical knowledge of humankind, however, is not yet matched by parallel political will to act early and decisively enough to reduce the consequences of climate change, and nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East. The contrast between the actions of European countries – individually or collectively via the European Union – and the relative inaction in the Arab world is also staggering.

Equally dangerous is an emerging new trend in global climate change analysis and pre-emptive policymaking that sees climate change consequences as a security issue, rather than merely as a matter of environmental or economic consequence. Countries hard hit by climate change that do not take early mitigation or adaptation measures, it is feared, will suffer severe consequences and become a menace to themselves and to others. These consequences could include large-scale population displacements, job losses, food and water shortages, social and political strife, unchecked migration, waves of “climate refugees,” and armed conflicts over water or land.

The danger of addressing climate change challenges primarily as a security threat was succinctly noted in a report published this year that provides a terrific synthesis of our knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change. The compact but rich 36-page report, titled “Climate Change: Global risks, challenges and decisions-Synthesis Report,” summarized the deliberations of 12 leading international scholars who met in Copenhagen in March under the aegis of the International Alliance of Research Universities.

In the document, University of Copenhagen professor Ole Waever, a leading scholar of international relations security theory, wrote that not only can climate change exacerbate conflicts and increase strains and violence among competing groups, but also that “[w]hen issues are cast in security terms, leaders get increased latitude for dramatic measures. It is crucial that this ‘security-driven empowerment’ in the case of climate change gets ‘channeled’ into strengthening of international institutions, and not unilateral emergency acts. Factoring security into the climate change equation runs the risk of escalating vicious circles. In the parts of the world where health and wellbeing are most negatively impacted by climate change, the likelihood of conflict will increase most, and these conflicts will further reduce living standards.”

The security-climate change nexus is critical for the Middle East, which is setting itself up for a catastrophe if individual countries do not soon summon the political will to acknowledge the likely consequences of climate change, and act preemptively to deal with them. In a region that is already fully or semi-arid, with its concomitant negative impact on agriculture, and major cities burgeoning out of control due to high birth and rural-to-urban migration rates, unchecked climate change that raises the average temperature by two degrees Centigrade is certain to aggravate the series of trends that have already turned our region into a showcase of incompetent public management and poor governance.

These trends include declining per capita available fresh water resources, degradation of water quality, urban hyper-growth, rising food costs, and widening disparities among populations when it comes to such indicators as income, health and social services, water and sanitation services, food quality, education, and overall quality of life.

The signs to date suggest that most Arab countries in the past generation have been unable to manage public services, the economy, and the equitable distribution of, and access to, national resources in a manner allowing the living standards of most citizens to improve. Rather, a small slice of Arabs has enjoyed significant wealth or very comfortable living standards, while the majority has remained mired in low-income living conditions – conditions not desperate enough to foment social or political unrest, but that also do not allow the bulk of citizens to graduate into a solid middle class life characterized by security, hope and wellbeing.

At a recent seminar at the American University of Beirut that brought together climate change researchers in four Levant countries, participants discussed the fact that massive quantities of fresh water are being pumped out of the ground and used by private interests, without the regulation of the state. Consistent over-exploitation of underground aquifers has seen available fresh water supplies decline steadily in many if not most Arab countries.

Water allocation, pricing, re-use, storage and conveyance are also widely mismanaged throughout the Middle East. It is difficult to see how a region that has been unable to master the most basic aspects of integrated water resources management can possibly muster the skills and political will to deal with the far more serious challenges of climate change. A resort to climate matters as a security issue is always possible in a region where security agencies dominate society and lead to severe distortions that partly account for the moribund state of Arab society.

The early warning signs are clear for all to see, and the scientific knowledge needed to deal with the challenges and potential threats is widely available to anyone with an internet connection. In the late 1970s, we were warned about imminent stress resulting from population growth, urban sprawl, arable land misuse, and water shortages. We did virtually nothing about all these issues, and they have blossomed into veritable crises that plague a majority of our citizens today, though the leaderships and elites are shielded from the pain.

We would look like world class idiots if we again ignored the early warnings about climate change, where the potential consequences are much direr. Amateurish national natural resource management for a generation should be as much as any people should be expected to suffer.

Beyond Stereotypes

As per request my speech from yesterday evening.

 

Check against delivery

Welcome

Thanks to Municipality and Mayor Omar for use of this hall – I know he has a weak spot for stand-up so he really had no other option than to accept.

Thanks to the Royal Film Commission for all their assistance and for use of their Facebook group. We look forward to do more with you in the future.

One the Danish side this event has been created by the Danish Center for Culture and Development – with humble financial assistance from the Foreign Ministry – so to them all the credit.

I think we have a good program for tonight and with Nabil’s gentle but firm guidance we will be in good hands.

Stereotypes – you know what – I happen to belong to a somewhat exclusive stereotype – the diplomat. 80 years ago a diplomat was stereotyped by his “good temper, good health and good looks”. That was a diplomat. Little later things became less rosy – then a diplomat was a “cookie pusher” – a guy doing nothing but attending tea parties. 

Today – in my country – a diplomat – for not speaking about an ambassador – is a person always wearing tuxedo, moving around in “elevated circles” and attending cocktail parties to no good. And thanks to an often repeated TV-commercial the diplomat favours a specific type of Swiss chocolate. This is the image that is regularly being portrayed in movies, news paper articles and on TV.

I don’t deny or shy away from the fact that I belong to the diplomat category – but I find the stereotyping a bit unfair. I didn’t bring my black tie; most of my working hours are spend on political, security or trade issues and meeting with people from all walks of life in all kinds of places; and I don’t like the chocolate. I am pretty sure that my fellow colleagues feel the same way.

But it is hard to fight a well grown stereotype. In the Foreign Service we have tried for years and years – without success. It doesn’t matter how many times we are seen publicly working under extreme, dangerous or unhealthy conditions. It doesn’t matter how much we try to be of assistance to Danish companies and Danish citizens in trouble or how successful we are in doing that. It actually doesn’t matter what we do in real life – the stereotype sticks like glue.

Luckily – it is one of the more benign stereotypes – we are only hurt on our egos and we can joke about our stereotyped selves:

My experience tells me very clearly that moving beyond stereotypes takes a lot of effort and a lot of time. 

While preparing for tonight I used Wikipedia to look-up stereotypes. Couldn’t find any Danish ones. A wider search gave a few hits – one person was asking where you could find negative Danish stereotypes – he had only found a few positive ones. I searched also in vain for the negative ones – the only thing that came up a couple of times was that Danes are not very open towards strangers. The only really negative one was one that I had found earlier here in Jordan – it is made by my favourite cartoonist Emad Hajjad. He takes the Danish symbol – the national flag and twists the cross in the flag to make a nazi swastika cross – equalizing all Danes with Nazis. Serious stuff.

Arab stereotypes you find in tons on the net. On Wiki It has its own article. The Arab American community talks about the “three B’s syndrome”.  Arabs in TV or movies are Bombers, Belly Dancers or Billionaires. I think I know which one is the dominant one today.

That brings me to touch on a very well known Arab/Muslim stereotyping of Danish origin – the Cartoon. I don’t want to recall the whole story about this – just to emphasise that for many reasons this probably got a lot more media exposure than it deserved from the outset.

But it did illustrate one thing very clearly. What we do and say in our own little back yard is picked-up and reacted to in ways that was not originally intended and that can get totally out of control. It reminded all of us in my country that we are living in a global village and that we are faced with a new challenge.

How do we find the right way between behaving as we are used to do and then taking into consideration that other people in the global village may have different norms and standards?  What if the others are seriously offended? Should we care?

Many people are worried and most do care. Let me give you some numbers from a recent poll from Gallup Institute for the Danish Youth Council: They asked a large sample of Danish youth: Do you agree that Denmark is hated in the Middle East because of the Cartoons: 65% did agree and only 10% did disagree. I wasn’t asked – but I would definitely disagree with that statement.

Anyway – a follow-up question was: Do you agree that it is particularly important to have a dialogue with youth in the Middle East to improve the perception of Denmark? 67% did agree, 7% did disagree. Others questions gave answers along the same line.

Most Danes also want to live peacefully with their neighbours in the global village. So we have to discuss how we are able to protect our own society as a society that develops through un-censored free speech and open exchange of views and leaves space for different political views and religious beliefs.

Can we in the future avoid all kind of speech that could lead to a new crisis? No. It is in the nature of a free open society that we cannot – and that we will not – control all things. Any individual or group has the possibility to say and do things that might be considered provocative or offensive somewhere. But what we can do is to discuss ways to avoid that such incidents – in particular if made with bad intentions – become crises between whole populations. We all have to work to ensure strength in our relations to avoid that small incidents can become and be used for major crises. We should work together to find ways. There are three keywords: dialogue, dialogue and dialogue. Maybe we should add a fourth – humour.

And dialogue and fun is what we hopefully will have in this hall tonight. I look forward to our discussion and I thank you for participating tonight.

Stand-up stereotypes…!

Please join me at the Al Hussein Cultural Center this Thursday the 16th at 7.00 PM for an evening with stand-up comedy, film, debate and hopefully animated and heated discussion about Arab and Danish stereotypes. DJ Shadi will entertain in the Lounge after the event. More on 7iber.com 

UPDATE: My good friend Ambassador Hasan Abu Nimeh has an interesting article in Jordan Times today. In the article he discuss integration, in particular integration of muslims living in Europe: “The key words are integration, respect for the rule of law on the part of the Muslim immigrant communities, and adequate consideration for the Muslims’ religious and cultural commitments, on the part of their hosts.”