Can the Mideast manage climate change?

By Rami G. Khouri

Daily Star staff

Saturday, September 19, 2009

The amount and quality of available scientific data on the global impact of climate change, I rediscovered at a seminar organized by the Danish Foreign Ministry in Copenhagen this week, is staggering. The debate that swirled around the issues of climate change and global warming just two or three years ago has vanished. There is much more certainty now on the nature and extent of the changes to the Earth’s climate that can be attributed to the impact of human activity, mainly the burning of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases.

The collective technical knowledge of humankind, however, is not yet matched by parallel political will to act early and decisively enough to reduce the consequences of climate change, and nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East. The contrast between the actions of European countries – individually or collectively via the European Union – and the relative inaction in the Arab world is also staggering.

Equally dangerous is an emerging new trend in global climate change analysis and pre-emptive policymaking that sees climate change consequences as a security issue, rather than merely as a matter of environmental or economic consequence. Countries hard hit by climate change that do not take early mitigation or adaptation measures, it is feared, will suffer severe consequences and become a menace to themselves and to others. These consequences could include large-scale population displacements, job losses, food and water shortages, social and political strife, unchecked migration, waves of “climate refugees,” and armed conflicts over water or land.

The danger of addressing climate change challenges primarily as a security threat was succinctly noted in a report published this year that provides a terrific synthesis of our knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change. The compact but rich 36-page report, titled “Climate Change: Global risks, challenges and decisions-Synthesis Report,” summarized the deliberations of 12 leading international scholars who met in Copenhagen in March under the aegis of the International Alliance of Research Universities.

In the document, University of Copenhagen professor Ole Waever, a leading scholar of international relations security theory, wrote that not only can climate change exacerbate conflicts and increase strains and violence among competing groups, but also that “[w]hen issues are cast in security terms, leaders get increased latitude for dramatic measures. It is crucial that this ‘security-driven empowerment’ in the case of climate change gets ‘channeled’ into strengthening of international institutions, and not unilateral emergency acts. Factoring security into the climate change equation runs the risk of escalating vicious circles. In the parts of the world where health and wellbeing are most negatively impacted by climate change, the likelihood of conflict will increase most, and these conflicts will further reduce living standards.”

The security-climate change nexus is critical for the Middle East, which is setting itself up for a catastrophe if individual countries do not soon summon the political will to acknowledge the likely consequences of climate change, and act preemptively to deal with them. In a region that is already fully or semi-arid, with its concomitant negative impact on agriculture, and major cities burgeoning out of control due to high birth and rural-to-urban migration rates, unchecked climate change that raises the average temperature by two degrees Centigrade is certain to aggravate the series of trends that have already turned our region into a showcase of incompetent public management and poor governance.

These trends include declining per capita available fresh water resources, degradation of water quality, urban hyper-growth, rising food costs, and widening disparities among populations when it comes to such indicators as income, health and social services, water and sanitation services, food quality, education, and overall quality of life.

The signs to date suggest that most Arab countries in the past generation have been unable to manage public services, the economy, and the equitable distribution of, and access to, national resources in a manner allowing the living standards of most citizens to improve. Rather, a small slice of Arabs has enjoyed significant wealth or very comfortable living standards, while the majority has remained mired in low-income living conditions – conditions not desperate enough to foment social or political unrest, but that also do not allow the bulk of citizens to graduate into a solid middle class life characterized by security, hope and wellbeing.

At a recent seminar at the American University of Beirut that brought together climate change researchers in four Levant countries, participants discussed the fact that massive quantities of fresh water are being pumped out of the ground and used by private interests, without the regulation of the state. Consistent over-exploitation of underground aquifers has seen available fresh water supplies decline steadily in many if not most Arab countries.

Water allocation, pricing, re-use, storage and conveyance are also widely mismanaged throughout the Middle East. It is difficult to see how a region that has been unable to master the most basic aspects of integrated water resources management can possibly muster the skills and political will to deal with the far more serious challenges of climate change. A resort to climate matters as a security issue is always possible in a region where security agencies dominate society and lead to severe distortions that partly account for the moribund state of Arab society.

The early warning signs are clear for all to see, and the scientific knowledge needed to deal with the challenges and potential threats is widely available to anyone with an internet connection. In the late 1970s, we were warned about imminent stress resulting from population growth, urban sprawl, arable land misuse, and water shortages. We did virtually nothing about all these issues, and they have blossomed into veritable crises that plague a majority of our citizens today, though the leaderships and elites are shielded from the pain.

We would look like world class idiots if we again ignored the early warnings about climate change, where the potential consequences are much direr. Amateurish national natural resource management for a generation should be as much as any people should be expected to suffer.

Rising Temperatures – Rising Tensions

Primarily thanks to the continuous efforts of environmentalists climate change has now become an established item on the global agenda. On a lower level “Being green” and showing care for the environment is in many countries regarded as a luxury in the light of everyday challenges but I think this is changing for good. Climate change has serious – and devastating – security implications. A scenario where migration is forced by and wars are fought over climate and resources has today a high probability of becoming reality.

Imagine what a people or a country will do if suddenly faced with no access to drinking water – or food – or land….

The Middle East – including Jordan – is often considered as one of the regions mostly affected by the impacts of climate change. The Middle East is also frequently presented as one of the regions that is most likely to erupt into conflict as a result of Climate change. In Jordan climate change is also very present in daily life. We name it draught or water scarcity and we see the Dead Sea shrinking every year. Rainfall has dropped and water consumption gone up and while a part of it is due to local phenomena this development will be accentuated by climate change to an intolerable degree.

For the countries of the Levant the disruptive impact of climate change will be determined by their vulnerability and their ability to adapt to its impact. Climate change might actually offer an incentive for countries in the region to work together despite their political differences. On the other hand given the current political landscape, to some extent characterized by general distrust among most if not all neighbours, hostility and current lack of cooperation, climate change could more likely aggravate tensions in a number of sombre ways.

Climate change is a fact of life and there is increasing global consensus that human activity carries a major responsibility for this. Climate change is furthermore one of the most serious threats facing the world – reducing the availability of water, threatening the production of food, undermining economic growth and threatening the very existence of some parts of the world. We therefore have to act fast through a firm global response.

Denmark will host the United Nations global meeting on climate change – the so called COP15 – in Copenhagen in December. Our objective is to conclude a new, ambitious global agreement on climate change that includes all countries of the world – including Jordan. The agreement should contain ambitious targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions considered the most important driver of climate change.

Against this background the Danish Embassy together with the International Institute for Sustainable Development will launch a report “Rising Temperatures – Rising Tensions” on how climate change can have a positive as well as a negative impact on present and future security challenges in the Middle East. It is our hope that the report can contribute to the broader efforts of promoting peace and security in Middle East.

The Launch will take place today at 17.00 at The Columbia University Middle East Research Center (CUMERC) and will be followed by a presentation of the report by one of its authors Mr. Oli Brown (IISD) and a panel discussion on the report’s findings. Places will be allocated on a first come – first serve basis, and please give a call to the embassy (592 66 20) if you plan to attend. A summary of the report can be downloaded here Rising temp rising tensions – summary.

UPDATE: The full (worth the read) report (4.4 MB) can be downloaded from this link. And a frontpage article from Jordan Times.

Stand-up stereotypes…!

Please join me at the Al Hussein Cultural Center this Thursday the 16th at 7.00 PM for an evening with stand-up comedy, film, debate and hopefully animated and heated discussion about Arab and Danish stereotypes. DJ Shadi will entertain in the Lounge after the event. More on 7iber.com 

UPDATE: My good friend Ambassador Hasan Abu Nimeh has an interesting article in Jordan Times today. In the article he discuss integration, in particular integration of muslims living in Europe: “The key words are integration, respect for the rule of law on the part of the Muslim immigrant communities, and adequate consideration for the Muslims’ religious and cultural commitments, on the part of their hosts.”

Immigrants and descendants from Muslim countries are pleased with Denmark

Immigrants from Muslim countries are favourably disposed towards their lives in Denmark.

In a survey (in Danish) conducted by Statistics Denmark for CEPOS (Center for Political Studies) in 2007 (but for some unknown reason only published last weekend) 79 percent of the immigrants and 91 percent of the descendants from Muslim countries indicate that their lives are better in Denmark, compared to what it would have been in their countries of origin.

In the same survey 76 percent of the immigrants and 75 percent of the descendants answered, that they were satisfied with the general social situation in Denmark. This level is a par with that of ethnic Danes. This suggests that although the group is often presented as being very dissatisfied with the social conditions in Denmark, general satisfaction is dominating.

It is good news, partly because immigrants’ satisfaction in itself is positive, and partly because one must expect that this satisfaction is a better starting point for integration. In the survey, respondents were also asked about specific aspects of the Danish society compared to their countries of origin. The respondents are most satisfied with the economical conditions in Denmark compared to the countries of origin, and least satisfied with the rights of religious minorities. The assessment of the economic situation of the respondents seems to be the most significant for the level of overall satisfaction.

LEGO Charity Donation to Jordan part II

One of the important events at the Danish embassy this year is the LEGO Charity Donation to Jordan as has been reflected in the Jordanian media (article and photo). LEGO is a world renowned toy and educational tool that many, many children all over the world use every day. Many of you have probably been brought up with LEGO. Unfortunately this is not the case for a lot of children from less privileged families. LEGO has an ambition to reach out to those kids and this is why the embassy together with LEGO has organized a huge donation of LEGO building blocks (12.500 kg) to Jordan. More about that in my speech.

The last two days we have conducted a number of workshops for teachers, community centre leaders, caretakers and charity workers on how to make children benefit the most from the donation. The workshops were interesting, intense and – I think - a great success – some of the advice given would help make Jordan a more creative society. To watch a group of Madrasati teachers going crazy in excitement and the impossible task of the workshop trainer to get the teacher to sit down and listen (like the teachers themselves orders every day in their classes) was simply hilarious. Just have a look at the pictures below.

Soon, I expect to do a more elaborate article on the idea behind the donation.